On the Implementation of the Artificial Neural Network Approach for Forecasting Different Healthcare Events.

The rising number of confirmed cases and deaths in Pakistan caused by the coronavirus have caused problems in all areas of the country, not just healthcare. For accurate policy making, it is very important to have accurate and efficient predictions of confirmed cases and death counts. In this article, we use a coronavirus dataset that includes the number of deaths, confirmed cases, and recovered cases to test an artificial neural network model and compare it to different univariate time series models. In contrast to the artificial neural network model, we consider five univariate time series models to predict confirmed cases, deaths count, and recovered cases. The considered models are applied to Pakistan's daily records of confirmed cases, deaths, and recovered cases from 10 March 2020 to 3 July 2020. Two statistical measures are considered to assess the performances of the models. In addition, a statistical test, namely, the Diebold and Mariano test, is implemented to check the accuracy of the mean errors. The results (mean error and statistical test) show that the artificial neural network model is better suited to predict death and recovered coronavirus cases. In addition, the moving average model outperforms all other confirmed case models, while the autoregressive moving average is the second-best model.

Predictive modeling of the COVID-19 data using a new version of the flexible Weibull model and machine leaning techniques.

Statistical modeling and forecasting of time-to-events data are crucial in every applied sector. For the modeling and forecasting of such data sets, several statistical methods have been introduced and implemented. This paper has two aims, i.e., (i) statistical modeling and (ii) forecasting. For modeling time-to-events data, we introduce a new statistical model by combining the flexible Weibull model with the Z-family approach. The new model is called the Z flexible Weibull extension (Z-FWE) model, where the characterizations of the Z-FWE model are obtained. The maximum likelihood estimators of the Z-FWE distribution are obtained. The evaluation of the estimators of the Z-FWE model is assessed in a simulation study. The Z-FWE distribution is applied to analyze the mortality rate of COVID-19 patients. Finally, for forecasting the COVID-19 data set, we use machine learning (ML) techniques i.e., artificial neural network (ANN) and group method of data handling (GMDH) with the autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA). Based on our findings, it is observed that ML techniques are more robust in terms of forecasting than the ARIMA model.

On the implementation of a new version of the Weibull distribution and machine learning approach to model the COVID-19 data.

Statistical methodologies have broader applications in almost every sector of life including education, hydrology, reliability, management, and healthcare sciences. Among these sectors, statistical modeling and predicting data in the healthcare sector is very crucial. In this paper, we introduce a new method, namely, a new extended exponential family to update the distributional flexibility of the existing models. Based on this approach, a new version of the Weibull model, namely, a new extended exponential Weibull model is introduced. The applicability of the new extended exponential Weibull model is shown by considering two data sets taken from the health sciences. The first data set represents the mortality rate of the patients infected by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Mexico. Whereas, the second set represents the mortality rate of COVID-19 patients in Holland. Utilizing the same data sets, we carry out forecasting using three machine learning (ML) methods including support vector regression (SVR), random forest (RF), and neural network autoregression (NNAR). To assess their forecasting performances, two statistical accuracy measures, namely, root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) are considered. Based on our findings, it is observed that the RF algorithm is very effective in predicting the death rate of the COVID-19 data in Mexico. Whereas, for the second data, the SVR performs better as compared to the other methods.

On Predictive Modeling Using a New Flexible Weibull Distribution and Machine Learning Approach: Analyzing the COVID-19 Data

Predicting and modeling time-to-events data is a crucial and interesting research area. For modeling and predicting such types of data, numerous statistical models have been suggested and implemented. This study introduces a new statistical model, namely, a new modified flexible Weibull extension (NMFWE) distribution for modeling the mortality rate of COVID-19 patients. The introduced model is obtained by modifying the flexible Weibull extension model. The maximum likelihood estimators of the NMFWE model are obtained. The evaluation of the estimators of the NMFWE model is assessed in a simulation study. The flexibility and applicability of the NMFWE model are established by taking two datasets representing the mortality rates of COVID-19-infected persons in Mexico and Canada. For predictive modeling, we consider two pure statistical models and two machine learning (ML) algorithms. The pure statistical models include the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) and non-parametric autoregressive moving average (NP-ARMA), and the ML algorithms include neural network autoregression (NNAR) and support vector regression (SVR). To evaluate their forecasting performance, three standard measures of accuracy, namely, root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) are calculated. The findings demonstrate that ML algorithms are very effective at predicting the mortality rate data.